PREDICTIONS ARE NOT ALWAYS WRONG!
Because they are not! Saying that they are, you are only damaging your chance to get a good tip which can be 100% accurate. Yes, predictions can be absolutely correct.
Every move and plan we have in life or in business depends on guesses, predictions and forecasts. So for them to be always false, your plans should also be false. However, this is not really how it is, right? Yet, we still tend to thing that way when we think of calculated predictions, aka forecasts. This way of thinking pushes us to change our calculations or the method we make forecasts all together. If we get our forecasts from an expert, it pushes us to change that expert. Since the results we get can be effected greatly by a wrong decision, we try to adopt the most trusty method as possible. So when our predicted forecasts don’t hit the number or answer we had in mind, we always doubt our scientific way. Harsh truth is always harder to accept than accepting that some part of your forecast calculations are wrong.
It is already hard to put many different variables together to work in harmony and get a single answer as a result of all those. So, why would you try to undermine your efforts and go hard on your beliefs? Forecasts don’t have to be 100% right to be valuable (although sometimes they actually are). Sometimes their only mission is to point you the right way when you are in doubt about what is going to happen.
Don’t you need a light when every possible option in future seems as dark as the other one. You are about to have it on front of you. But having a statistically calculated number doesn’t reduce the need to have a belief in what you have just found out. Our predictions are there to provide guidance to show us where the issue we are dealing with is heading to. This may sound a bit ambiguous, but definitely not false. After all, you are dealing with the events and probabilities of future! You also don’t have an idea about what is going to happen right? Then, how are you even sure that how much your forecast is ambiguous? There is no measurement to that question. The 100% accurate result will always be hidden in the future, until that time comes to uncover what will really happen.
Then what can we expect from forecasts? Strong probabilities. Luckily it is possible to check meaningfulness of a forecast. You can use your historic data to check whether your forecast tells you an impossible story or not. You can check the p value to see if your forecasts got your answers with pure luck or not. You can double check your variables to see if you have included enough in your model or not. The list goes on! So the answer is yes, a forecast can be saved from being wrong to show you the way. If you are still looking for a 100% accurate answer to evaluate your forecast as correct or not, sadly, there are no guarantees of forecasts will do that. Just like our plans in life.
Sometimes however, to many variables come into place. In those cases, no single answer could be able satisfy your inner voice, even if you do believe in the forecast you conduct. In those cases, it is much better to get your result as ranges instead of a single answer. This way, you can be able to fine tune your predictions and select the most meaningful single point with most likelihood to happen.
To wrap everything up; if you are dealing with a future problem, uncertainty will happen. It will help you to get yourself ready for it mentally. This way of thinking could aid you while you start making your predictions and forecasts.
Every move and plan we have in life or in business depends on guesses, predictions and forecasts. So for them to be always false, your plans should also be false. However, this is not really how it is, right? Yet, we still tend to thing that way when we think of calculated predictions, aka forecasts. This way of thinking pushes us to change our calculations or the method we make forecasts all together. If we get our forecasts from an expert, it pushes us to change that expert. Since the results we get can be effected greatly by a wrong decision, we try to adopt the most trusty method as possible. So when our predicted forecasts don’t hit the number or answer we had in mind, we always doubt our scientific way. Harsh truth is always harder to accept than accepting that some part of your forecast calculations are wrong.
It is already hard to put many different variables together to work in harmony and get a single answer as a result of all those. So, why would you try to undermine your efforts and go hard on your beliefs? Forecasts don’t have to be 100% right to be valuable (although sometimes they actually are). Sometimes their only mission is to point you the right way when you are in doubt about what is going to happen.
Don’t you need a light when every possible option in future seems as dark as the other one. You are about to have it on front of you. But having a statistically calculated number doesn’t reduce the need to have a belief in what you have just found out. Our predictions are there to provide guidance to show us where the issue we are dealing with is heading to. This may sound a bit ambiguous, but definitely not false. After all, you are dealing with the events and probabilities of future! You also don’t have an idea about what is going to happen right? Then, how are you even sure that how much your forecast is ambiguous? There is no measurement to that question. The 100% accurate result will always be hidden in the future, until that time comes to uncover what will really happen.
Then what can we expect from forecasts? Strong probabilities. Luckily it is possible to check meaningfulness of a forecast. You can use your historic data to check whether your forecast tells you an impossible story or not. You can check the p value to see if your forecasts got your answers with pure luck or not. You can double check your variables to see if you have included enough in your model or not. The list goes on! So the answer is yes, a forecast can be saved from being wrong to show you the way. If you are still looking for a 100% accurate answer to evaluate your forecast as correct or not, sadly, there are no guarantees of forecasts will do that. Just like our plans in life.
Sometimes however, to many variables come into place. In those cases, no single answer could be able satisfy your inner voice, even if you do believe in the forecast you conduct. In those cases, it is much better to get your result as ranges instead of a single answer. This way, you can be able to fine tune your predictions and select the most meaningful single point with most likelihood to happen.
To wrap everything up; if you are dealing with a future problem, uncertainty will happen. It will help you to get yourself ready for it mentally. This way of thinking could aid you while you start making your predictions and forecasts.